The Shifting Sands: A Trend Analysis of Recent German Bundestag Polls.(As of 08/21/2025)

German politics are in constant flux, and recent polling data reveals some significant shifts in voter sentiment. This analysis examines trends in Bundestag (German Parliament), highlighting which parties are gaining momentum, which are losing ground, and what these changes might signify for the future political landscape.

Key Findings:

In summary, the data indicates the following trends:

Clear Upward Trends: Die Linke (The Left), AfD (Alternative for Germany)

Clear Downward Trends: CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union), BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht - Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance)

Weak/Moderate Downward Trends: SPD (Social Democratic Party), FDP (Free Democratic Party)

Stable/No Change: Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (The Greens)

Detailed Overview (12-Month Window):

The following data is based on a linear regression analysis over the last 12 months (ending August 21, 2025), including 6-month and 12-month averages.

• Die Linke (The Left):

  • 6-Month Average: ≈ 10.0%

  • 12-Month Average: ≈ 6.74%

  • Slope: ≈ +10.85 percentage points per year

  • Correlation (r): ≈ 0.89

  • P-value (p): ≪ 0.001

  • Interpretation: Strong and highly significant growth. The 6-month average is significantly higher than the 12-month average, indicating that the increase is concentrated in recent months. This trend is supported by the party's reported increase in membership, exceeding 100,000 in February 2025.

• AfD (Alternative for Germany):

  • 6-Month Average: ≈ 23.5%

  • 12-Month Average: ≈ 21.15%

  • Slope: ≈ +8.58 percentage points per year

  • Correlation (r): ≈ 0.89

  • P-value (p): ≪ 0.001

  • Interpretation: Strong and highly significant upward trend. The 6-month average is higher than the 12-month average, indicating recent gains.

• CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union):

  • 6-Month Average: ≈ 27.0%

  • 12-Month Average: ≈ 29.3%

  • Slope: ≈ -7.78 percentage points per year

  • Correlation (r): ≈ -0.80

  • P-value (p): ≪ 0.001

  • Interpretation: Clear and significant decline over the past year.

• BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht - Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance):

  • 6-Month Average: ≈ 4.09%

  • 12-Month Average: ≈ 5.34%

  • Slope: ≈ -5.10 percentage points per year

  • Correlation (r): ≈ -0.77

  • P-value (p): ≪ 0.001

  • Interpretation: Significant decline. The 6-month average is noticeably lower than the 12-month average.

• SPD (Social Democratic Party):

  • 6-Month Average: ≈ 15.1%

  • 12-Month Average: ≈ 15.43%

  • Slope: ≈ -1.01 percentage points per year

  • Correlation (r): ≈ -0.27

  • P-value (p): ≈ 7.2e-6

  • Interpretation: Slight, but statistically significant, downward trend. Practically moderate.

• FDP (Free Democratic Party):

  • 6-Month Average: ≈ 3.58%

  • 12-Month Average: ≈ 3.84%

  • Slope: ≈ -0.90 percentage points per year

  • Correlation (r): ≈ -0.42

  • P-value (p): ≪ 0.001

  • Interpretation: Small to moderate decline. Statistically significant.

• Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (The Greens):

  • 6-Month Average: ≈ 11.6%

  • 12-Month Average: ≈ 11.9%

  • Slope: ≈ -0.02 percentage points per year

  • P-value (p): ≈ 0.94

  • Interpretation: No discernible change; stagnation.

Conclusion:

These polling trends paint a complex picture of the evolving political landscape in Germany. The gains made by both Die Linke and AfD, coupled with the struggles of traditional centrist parties, suggest a potential realignment of voter preferences. While polls are not definitive predictors of election results, they offer valuable insights into the current mood of the electorate and warrant close attention as the next federal election approaches.

Data Source: https://dawum.de/