When Societies Begin to Fear: The 25–30% Threshold of Migration and Its Political Consequences.
Migration has always shaped nations, yet there seems to be a recurring point where acceptance turns into anxiety. Across democracies, research increasingly suggests a critical tipping point: when the proportion of migrants in a population reaches around 25–30%, large parts of society start to feel threatened, worry about cultural survival, and shift support to right-wing populist or conservative parties.
But is this number universal? And why does it sometimes trigger backlash.
What the Research Says
1. Germany
Share of people with a migration background: ~27%.
2015 refugee crisis acted as a migration shock (>3% increase in short time).
Rise of AfD: strongest in regions with fast local increases, even when the absolute percentage was below 30.
Lesson: Speed of change, not just the absolute share, drives fears.
2. Switzerland
Foreign-born population: ~26%.
Repeated referenda show: in cantons above 25–30%, support for SVP’s anti-immigration initiatives is significantly stronger.
Lesson: Threshold effects clearly present, but Switzerland absorbs tensions through direct democracy, channeling protest into votes instead of street unrest.
3. United States
Immigrant share: ~15% nationally, but many counties have >30% “minority majorities.”
Eric Kaufmann (Whiteshift, 2021): white populations respond with “backlash” once they perceive they might become minorities.
Politically visible in the rise of Trumpism and GOP radicalization, especially in counties above 25–30% minority share.
4. Australia – The Puzzle Case
World record: 30% of the population is foreign-born (Statista, 2023).
For decades, no major right-populist breakthrough. Why?
Highly controlled, points-based immigration → narrative of economic benefit.
Migration was framed not as a crisis, but as a national success story.
BUT: In 2025, March for Australia protests erupted nationwide — linked not to demographics, but to housing shortages, inflation, and new waves of non-European migration (derStandard, 2025; n-tv, 2025; Junge Welt, 2025).
Lesson: The threshold was crossed long ago — yet political backlash erupts only when combined with economic crisis + cultural anxieties + transnational right-wing networks.
The Paradox of Protest.
Ironically, in immigrant nations like the United States and Australia, many who now demonstrate against migration are themselves descendants of earlier immigrant waves.
The Irish, Italians, Germans, Poles once faced the very hostility their descendants project onto today’s newcomers. Migration fears are thus less about “objective numbers” — and more about status anxiety, cultural identity, and perceived loss of control.
Conclusion: The Real “Limit of Tolerance”
The 25–30% range is indeed a recurring threshold where many societies begin to worry.
But the true trigger is context:
Slow, stable growth → tends to be accepted.
Sudden shocks (3–5% in short time) → highly destabilizing.
Economic crises (housing, inflation) → migration becomes a scapegoat.
Media & political narratives → decide whether the number means “opportunity” or “threat.”
Australia shows the exception: even with 30%, tolerance can hold for decades — until contextual crises reframe migration as risk.
Sources:
Dancygier, R. (2020, 2021). Dilemmas of Inclusion: Muslims in European Politics. Princeton University Press.
Arzheimer, K. & Carter, E. (2021). Explaining the Rise of the Radical Right in Europe. Annual Review of Political Science.
Hangartner, D. et al. (2019, 2022). ETH Zurich studies on Swiss referenda and migration.
Halla, M., Wagner, A., & Zweimüller, J. (2017, reprised in 2023). Immigration and Voting for the Far Right (Austria refugee shock).
Norris, P. & Inglehart, R. (2019/2020). Cultural Backlash. Cambridge University Press.
Kaufmann, E. (2021). Whiteshift. Penguin Press.
Münch, Ch. et al. (2024). Wohlstand in Gefahr? Ursachen und Folgen von Populismus. ifo Institute Munich.
Markus, A. (2020–2024). Scanlon Foundation surveys (Monash University, Australia).
