Europe’s Political Future: Latest EU Parliament Election Trends.
The latest European polling data, aggregated by PolitPro https://politpro.eu/de/eu-parlament, offers an insightful look into how the balance of power in the European Parliament would stand today. The results point to a resilient center-right lead, but also to the continued rise of right-wing populist forces and a shrinking pro-European coalition.
EPP (European People’s Party, center-right): 23.9%
S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats, center-left): 19.3%
PfE / ID (Patriots for Europe, far-right/populists): 11.9%
ECR (European Conservatives & Reformists, national conservatives): 9.9%
RE (Renew Europe, liberal center): 9.4%
LEFT (The Left, radical left): 7.1%
Greens / G/EFA: 5.8%
ESN (Europe of Sovereign Nations, new national parties): 4.6%
Non-Inscrits (unaffiliated): 1.9%
Others: 6.2%
Projected Seat Distribution (720 seats total, 361 needed for majority)
EPP (center-right): 172 seats
S&D (center-left): 139 seats
PfE/ID (far-right): 86 seats
ECR (national conservatives): 71 seats
Renew Europe: 68 seats
The Left: 51 seats
Greens: 42 seats
ESN: 33 seats
Non-Inscrits: 14 seats
Others: 44 seats
Key Insights:
EPP remains strongest, but fragile: With just under a quarter of the vote, EPP remains the largest group in Brussels, but its dominance has eroded compared to past decades.
S&D continues its decline: Europe’s social democrats are slipping below 20%, reinforcing their long-term structural challenge.
Populist right consolidates: Far-right and national-conservative blocs (PfE + ECR) would command roughly 22% of the vote and 157 seats together—making them a decisive force in EU politics.
Pro-European coalition under pressure: The traditional alliance of EPP, S&D, Renew, and Greens still holds with 421 seats (above the 361-seat majority threshold), but its margin is shrinking.
Fragmentation sets the tone: New movements across Europe—from Vox in Spain and Rassemblement National in France to BSW in Germany—shape a more fragmented, volatile political field.
What Does This Mean for Europe?
The EU’s center still holds—but more narrowly. The “grand coalition” between center-right, center-left, liberals, and Greens is becoming increasingly fragile, while populist conservative and far-right parties strengthen their foothold.
As a result:
Governability will be more complex, with fragile coalitions and fewer stable alliances.
Policy direction may shift, especially on contested issues such as migration, energy, and EU sovereignty.
2029 will be critical: If these trends continue, Brussels may face a political realignment in which pro-European forces can no longer dominate without concessions to conservative or nationalist actors.
Conclusion
Europe’s political future is marked not just by the rise of the right, but by the decline of the traditional center. For businesses, policymakers, and civil society, this means adapting to a political environment defined by fragmentation, volatility, and new voices. The EU Parliament may remain a pro-European majority house for now, but the foundations are shifting beneath its feet.
