From Dominance to Fragmentation: The Political Evolution of North Rhine-Westphalia.
The North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany’s most populous state, has long been a bellwether of national politics. Its elections not only shape the state government but also signal wider trends for Germany’s federal landscape. An examination of past decades reveals one of the most profound political transformations in Germany’s post-war history: the decline of SPD and CDU dominance and the rise of a multiparty system with the Greens, the AfD, and fluctuating liberal challengers.
Long-Term Election Results: A Historical Overview.
The Golden Age of the SPD (1960s–1990s)
For decades, NRW was considered a fortress of the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Between 1966 and 1990, the SPD regularly achieved between 45% and 52%, with its peak in 1990 at a remarkable 50%. This dominance was rooted in the state’s industrial legacy – coal, steel, and trade unions provided a reliable base.
The CDU, however, remained a strong challenger. While unable to break SPD dominance in the 1980s, the CDU often polled between 35% and 40%.
The Decline of the Volksparteien (2000s–2010s)
The century turned, and so did NRW’s political landscape. The SPD’s dominance began to crumble:
2000: SPD still led with 42.8%, but CDU was close behind at 37%.
2005: A historic CDU victory (44.8%) ended nearly four decades of uninterrupted SPD rule.
2010: CDU (34.6%) and SPD (34.5%) nearly tied, signalling the start of multi-party politics.
The Greens and the FDP began to play kingmaker roles, while The Left and Pirates briefly entered the picture. The Pirate Party’s 7.8% in 2012 was emblematic of voter volatility and protest politics.
The Present Era (2017–2022)
The 2022 election highlighted the end of the duopoly:
CDU: 35.7% (stable, but weaker than its historic highs).
SPD: 26.7% (a collapse compared to its 1990s results).
Greens: 18.2% (an all-time record, making them the third decisive force).
FDP: 5.9% (barely above the threshold, a shadow of its 2017 success at 12.6%).
AfD: 5.4% (relatively modest compared to East German states but firmly established).
The result demonstrated that no party can govern NRW alone anymore. Coalitions are no longer optional—they are mathematically and politically inevitable.
Political Evolution in NRW (1947 - 2020)
Conclusion
The story of NRW’s elections is the story of Germany itself: a transition from stable two-party dominance to fragmented coalition politics. What was once a contest between SPD and CDU has become a multi-actor negotiation involving Greens, liberals, and populists.
For political observers, NRW demonstrates both the challenges and opportunities of a mature pluralistic democracy: more voices, more complexity, and an end to predictability.
