From Integration to Control: The Rhetorical Shift of the CDU/CSU on Migration (2013–2025).
The Migration has been one of the most hotly debated political issues in Germany over the past decade. For the established CDU/CSU party in particular, the debates surrounding migration, asylum, and integration represent not only political decisions but also key identity issues in competition with other parties. An analysis of the CDU/CSU's election manifestos from 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 reveals how the party's rhetoric has evolved—from an emphasis on integration and economic opportunities to a significantly stronger focus on asylum, return, and control.The Methodology.
To investigate this rhetorical shift, we conducted a keyword frequency analysis of the CDU/CSU's federal election programs spanning the years 2013 to 2025. We categorized keywords into five main groups:
Migration (general) – migration, immigration, influx
Asylum & Refugees – asylum, refugees
Integration – integration
Security & Control – border, control, limitation, deportation, return
Economy – skilled workers, labor market, demography
The occurrences of these keywords were normalized based on program length (per 1,000 words) to ensure comparability.
The Results.
The analysis produced the following insights:
The Rhetoric change.
The Frequent.
2013: Opportunities and Integration.
The 2013 program, under Chancellor Angela Merkel, emphasized integration and the economic role of migration. Skilled labor, demographic needs, and social cohesion were central. Security was present but framed in terms of general order and border management within the EU context.
2017: Crisis Response.
The refugee crisis of 2015 dramatically reshaped rhetoric. By 2017, both “Asylum” and “Migration” references rose sharply, while integration reached its peak density. Keywords like control, limits, and regulation became staples—the party responding to public debates about “upper limits” for refugees.
2021: Balancing Humanitarianism and Order.
The 2021 program reflects a balancing act: humanitarian protection and “managed migration.” Asylum references remained elevated, but rhetoric softened compared to 2017. The economic lens (skilled workers) became less prominent.
2025: Restriction and Return.
The 2025 program, drafted under Friedrich Merz’s leadership, shows a clear rhetorical shift towards return and control. For the first time, references to asylum/refugees reached levels equal to or above general migration. Integration lost prominence, while terms like deportation and return agreements dominate. This marks a pivot away from integrationist narratives towards securitization, reflecting competition with AfD and BSW on migration issues.
The Conclusion.
The CDU/CSU’s rhetorical trajectory on migration reveals a shift from inclusion (integration/economy) to restriction (asylum/return/control).
2013–2017: Migrants as needed workers and integration challenge.
2017–2021: Migration as crisis to manage with humanitarian and security framings.
2025: Migration as threat that requires return policies, border enforcement, and restriction.
This evolution not only mirrors societal debates since 2015 but also signals how the CDU/CSU positions itself strategically against the AfD and the populist BSW.
Source:
The Government programs CDU/CSU:
2013: „Gemeinsam erfolgreich für Deutschland“ -CDU/CSU Programm
2017: „Für ein Deutschland, in dem wir gut und gerne leben“
2021: „Das Programm für Stabilität und Erneuerung“
2025: “Politikwechsel für Deutschland”
