Migration Waves and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.
The relationship between migration flows and the strength of right-wing populist parties has become a major theme in European politics over the past decade. This article examines how waves of migration since 2010 correlate with the electoral successes of the AfD in Germany, the FPÖ in Austria, the PVV in the Netherlands, and the SVP in Switzerland. While all four countries have been confronted with migration challenges, the political consequences differ significantly, revealing how institutional contexts and migration regimes shape outcomes.
Germany: AfD and the Migration Shock of 2015 and 2022
Germany experienced the largest migration pressures of all four countries. During the 2015 refugee crisis, more than 1 million asylum seekers entered, which coincided with the AfD’s breakthrough in 2017 (12.6%). A second peak emerged in 2022, when Russia’s war on Ukraine led to a record influx of nearly 2.7 million people. Since then, the AfD has stabilized in national polls at 20–23%, reflecting significant voter concerns about migration, integration, and government competence.
Austria: The FPÖ’s Success Tied to Migration Politics
Austria was strongly affected by the 2015 refugee crisis, when more than 214,000 asylum claims were registered. This shock helped drive the FPÖ’s rise to 26% in the 2017 elections. Although briefly weakened after the 2019 “Ibiza scandal,” the FPÖ has surged again, riding on renewed migration debates after the 2022 Ukraine crisis. Current polls place the party at around 30%, making it the strongest force in Austria.
Netherlands: Migration and Geert Wilders’ Historic Victory
In the Netherlands, overall immigration has trended upwards, with record highs in 2022 (403,000) due to Ukrainian refugees. Migration added more than 220,000 net residents that year, far above earlier averages. Geert Wilders’ PVV, which had long polled in the 10–13% range, capitalized on frustrations with migration and governance disputes, winning 23.5% in 2023, the party’s best result ever.
Migration vs. right-wing populist party peaks
Switzerland: A Different Story.
Switzerland, unlike its EU neighbors, did not experience the same dramatic migration shocks in 2015. Immigration remained relatively stable around ~190,000 annually, with only a modest increase. In 2022–2023, however, there was a visible peak to 263,000 immigrants, driven largely by Ukrainians under the special Schutzstatus S. Yet the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) has remained consistently strong for decades, hovering between 26–30%, regardless of migration peaks. Switzerland’s institutional setup – frequent referenda on migration and its non-EU status – helps explain why migration shocks translate less directly into electoral volatility.
Comparative Insights.
Germany, Austria, Netherlands: Migration spikes in 2015 and 2022 clearly correlate with jumps in support for right-wing populist parties.
Switzerland: Migration has been a permanent concern, but not tied to sudden electoral surges – instead, the SVP has maintained long-term dominance.
Drivers beyond migration: While migration shocks are crucial triggers, other factors such as economic uncertainty (in Germany from 2022), political scandals (Ibiza in Austria), or institutional fragmentation (Netherlands) also play pivotal roles.
Conclusion
This comparative perspective highlights that migration crises in 2015 and 2022 were key accelerators for right-wing populists in the EU – yet not uniformly so. For Switzerland, migration serves as a baseline of political identity rather than a short-term mobilizer. Ultimately, the data suggests that migration is a critical driver, but its political impact is mediated by the country’s political institutions, history, and party systems.
The role of migrants played a very significant part in the political successes of right-wing parties in the countries studied, and continues to secure the political existence of these parties to this day.
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