Why Migration and the Economy Intersect for AfD Supporters in NRW.
Recent polling data from North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) sheds light on a crucial political development in Germany: AfD supporters consistently rate the economic situation more negatively than any other voter group. What makes this finding particularly significant is how strongly these perceptions align with the AfD’s central political narrative—linking economic decline directly to migration. This intersection of issues does not merely reflect parallel concerns; it represents a deliberate rhetorical fusion that strengthens the AfD’s mobilization capacity.
1. Economic Pessimism Among AfD.
Survey data shows that when asked about the current economic outlook in NRW, AfD supporters paint the darkest picture. While CDU voters often display cautious optimism (reflecting the governing party’s incumbency bonus), AfD supporters overwhelmingly emphasize crisis, decline, and systemic failure.
This negativity functions as a protest identity marker: AfD voters express dissatisfaction not only with the economy itself but with political leadership, mainstream institutions, and the general direction of the country.
2. Migration as an Economic Frame.
The AfD does not present migration solely in cultural or security terms. Instead, it strategically frames migration as a root cause of economic distress:
Rising costs for welfare and housing programs.
Pressure on labor and housing markets.
Connection of “loss of control” at the borders with a “loss of prosperity.”
By embedding migration into an economic crisis narrative, the AfD links two emotionally powerful concerns—fear of economic decline and fear of uncontrolled migration.
3. Narrative Overlap: A Double Mobilization.
This dual framing yields powerful results:
Economy → Crisis Language: interpret unemployment, inflation, and industrial decline through the language of loss and betrayal.
Migration → Amplifier of Crisis: Migration is portrayed as the decisive tipping point that accelerates existing economic problems.
As a result, the AfD’s messaging resonates more strongly in NRW, a state with both industrial challenges (energy transition, Ruhrgebiet’s structural change) and visible local strains from migration policy (housing, municipal budgets).
4. Implications for the Political Landscape.
For mainstream parties, this fusion of economic pessimism plus migration skepticism presents a dilemma:
CDU/CSU: Faces pressure to emphasize order, control, and fiscal responsibility while also defending economic credibility.
SPD: Struggles to turn dissatisfaction into support, as its voter base in NRW often shares pessimistic views but looks elsewhere for solutions.
Greens: Risk being blamed for energy transition costs, which AfD successfully links to both “jobs lost” and “migration spending.”
Unless the mainstream parties can decouple economic debate from migration fears—by highlighting positive economic strategies, investments, and fair burden-sharing—the AfD will continue to profit from this overlapping narrative.
Conclusion.
The AfD’s rise in NRW is not simply about immigration, nor purely about economics—it is about the powerful merging of both narratives.
Economic decline is framed not as a structural challenge but as political failure tied to migration policy.
This framing resonates especially in regions where social and financial pressures converge, making NRW a case study for how migration and economics intertwine in modern right-wing populist politics.
For democratic parties, breaking this fusion will be essential to weaken the AfD’s mobilization power. That requires reframing the economy in hopeful terms while addressing migration with credible, pragmatic policy rather than leaving the field open to crisis narratives.
Sources: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1393938/umfrage/wirtschaftliche-lage-in-nordrhein-westfalen-nach-parteien/
Image source: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1393938/umfrage/wirtschaftliche-lage-in-nordrhein-westfalen-nach-parteien/
